What are the current territorial control dynamics in Ukraine, specifically focusing on the regions most heavily contested? Could you break down the current approximate lines of control, identifying which areas are held by Ukrainian forces, which are held by Russian forces (including areas controlled by Russian-backed separatists), and any “grey zones” where control is unclear or frequently contested? Also, beyond purely geographical control, how are these areas governed – what are the administrative structures in place, and what is the impact of the ongoing conflict on the civilian populations within these various zones of control regarding humanitarian access, essential services, and freedom of movement? Finally, what significant shifts in territorial control have occurred in the last month, and what are the major factors influencing these shifts (e.g., military offensives, logistical challenges, political developments)?

Answer

As of late 2023 and early 2024, the territorial control dynamics in Ukraine are characterized by a fluid and contested situation primarily focused along the eastern and southern regions of the country. Here’s a breakdown:

Russian-Occupied Territories:

• Extent: Russia currently occupies a significant portion of Ukrainian territory, including the Crimean Peninsula (annexed in 2014) and parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts (regions). The extent of control within these oblasts varies.
• Donetsk and Luhansk: Russia, through its proxy forces and now increasingly with its own military, controls a large part of these two oblasts, often referred to collectively as the Donbas region. Fighting here has been ongoing since 2014, with Russia seeking to consolidate its hold over the entire territory claimed by the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People’s Republic" (DPR) and "Luhansk People’s Republic" (LPR). Significant battles continue in areas like Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka.
• Zaporizhzhia and Kherson: Russia occupies a substantial portion of these southern oblasts. The Zaporizhzhia region is particularly complex, as Russia controls the southern part, including the city of Melitopol, while Ukraine controls the northern part, including the city of Zaporizhzhia. The frontline runs through this region. In Kherson, Ukraine liberated the city of Kherson and the west bank of the Dnipro River in late 2022. However, Russia still controls the east bank, from which it regularly shells Ukrainian-controlled territory. The Dnipro River serves as a natural barrier and a significant frontline in this area.
• Crimea: Russia maintains firm control over the Crimean Peninsula, which it annexed in 2014. The Kerch Strait Bridge, connecting Crimea to mainland Russia, is a vital supply route for Russian forces. Ukraine has conducted attacks on Russian military installations in Crimea, demonstrating its ability to strike behind enemy lines.

Ukrainian-Controlled Territories:

• Majority of the Country: The majority of Ukraine’s territory remains under Ukrainian control. This includes the capital, Kyiv, and major cities like Lviv, Odesa, and Kharkiv (though Kharkiv is frequently subjected to missile attacks).
• Frontline Regions: Ukrainian forces are actively defending territory along the entire eastern and southern frontlines. This involves intense fighting, artillery duels, and trench warfare.
• Counteroffensives: Throughout 2022 and 2023, Ukraine launched several counteroffensives, successfully liberating territory in the Kharkiv region and the western part of Kherson. However, recent counteroffensives in Zaporizhzhia have made limited gains against heavily fortified Russian positions.

Key Dynamics and Factors:

• Frontline Stasis: The frontline has become largely static in many areas, resembling a war of attrition. Both sides have dug in, creating heavily fortified defensive lines.
• Artillery Warfare: Artillery plays a dominant role in the conflict, with both sides relying heavily on long-range shelling to target enemy positions and disrupt supply lines.
• Missile and Drone Strikes: Russia continues to launch missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, targeting energy facilities, military installations, and civilian areas. Ukraine also conducts drone strikes on Russian territory and occupied areas.
• Foreign Aid: Western military and financial aid is crucial for Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression. The supply of weapons, ammunition, and financial assistance has been vital in sustaining Ukraine’s war effort.
• Russian Mobilization: Russia has conducted multiple waves of mobilization to replenish its forces, but manpower and equipment remain significant challenges.
• Political Considerations: The war is deeply intertwined with political considerations. Russia seeks to achieve its strategic objectives, which include controlling territory, weakening Ukraine, and preventing its integration with the West. Ukraine is determined to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Humanitarian Crisis: The war has created a severe humanitarian crisis, with millions of Ukrainians displaced from their homes and facing shortages of food, water, and medical care.
• Mining: Both sides have extensively mined the areas they control. This poses a risk to military operations and a long-term threat to civilians.
• Electronic Warfare (EW): Both sides are using EW to disrupt communications, jamming drones and missiles, and degrade the enemy’s situational awareness.
• Information Warfare: There is a constant information war, with both sides seeking to shape public opinion and influence the narrative of the conflict. Disinformation, propaganda, and cyberattacks are common tactics.

The territorial control dynamics in Ukraine remain highly volatile and subject to change depending on military operations, political developments, and the continued flow of foreign aid. The conflict is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.